16 CS2 cases can drop a Karambit, and all of them were released between 2013 and 2016, from CS:GO Weapon Case to Gamma 2 Case. Any knife drops at 0.26% (about 1 in 385) per opening. One exact Karambit finish is roughly 1 in 11,550 to 1 in 25,000 openings, assuming an even split that Valve doesn't publish.
Which CS2 cases drop a Karambit?
There are 16 CS2 Karambit cases in total. They share one knife pool: Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit and M9 Bayonet. Newer cases use different knife pools, so Kilowatt Case gives the Kukri and never a Karambit. For the other knife families and the cases that hold them, see a guide to all 20 CS2 knife types.
The case decides which of three finish sets you are chasing.
| Case | Released | Finish set | Knife pool |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case | 2013 | Original 13 | 65 |
| eSports 2013 Case | 2013 | Original 13 | 65 |
| Operation Bravo Case | 2013 | Original 13 | 65 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 2013 | Original 13 | 65 |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 2013 | Original 13 | 65 |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 2013 | Original 13 | 65 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 2014 | Original 13 | 65 |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 2014 | Original 13 | 65 |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | 2014 | Original 13 | 65 |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 2014 | Original 13 | 65 |
| Chroma Case | 2015 | Chroma | 30 |
| Chroma 2 Case | 2015 | Chroma | 30 |
| Revolver Case | 2015 | Original 13 | 65 |
| Chroma 3 Case | 2016 | Chroma | 30 |
| Gamma Case | 2016 | Gamma | 30 |
| Gamma 2 Case | 2016 | Gamma | 30 |
The pool is the number of knife-and-finish combinations (five knives times 13 or 6 finishes). The Revolver Case holds 65 rare knives, as does Operation Bravo, and Gamma 2 holds 30. A few trackers list slightly different pools for the oldest cases, so read the pool before you rely on the maths below.
- Original 13: Blue Steel, Boreal Forest, Case Hardened, Crimson Web, Fade, Forest DDPAT, Night, Safari Mesh, Scorched, Slaughter, Stained, Urban Masked and Vanilla.
- Chroma: Damascus Steel, Doppler, Marble Fade, Rust Coat, Tiger Tooth and Ultraviolet.
- Gamma: Autotronic, Black Laminate, Bright Water, Freehand, Gamma Doppler and Lore.
Doppler comes in Phases 1 to 4 plus Ruby, Sapphire and Black Pearl; Gamma Doppler has Phases 1 to 4 plus Emerald. Hotspawn's list of Karambit cases matches the table above.
How much does it cost to open a Karambit case?
As of October 2026, the cheapest Karambit cases cost about $5 to $7 per opening, while most original-set cases cost far more. That is the case plus a key, and the key costs $2.49.
| Case | Finish set | Cost to open | Average return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revolver Case | Original 13 | $5.02 | -53.0% |
| Gamma 2 Case | Gamma | $5.22 | -49.5% |
| Gamma Case | Gamma | $5.29 | -47.8% |
| Chroma 3 Case | Chroma | $5.71 | -54.8% |
| Chroma 2 Case | Chroma | $6.11 | -53.4% |
| Chroma Case | Chroma | $6.84 | -52.6% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | Original 13 | $13.44 | -35.6% |
| Operation Bravo Case | Original 13 | $57.26 | -73.1% |
Figures are from SteamAnalyst's case rankings in October 2026, and they move daily. The table shows the cheapest cases plus two expensive originals for contrast. Prices for the other original-set cases are on the same page.
Cheap does not mean good value. eSports 2013 Winter costs $13.44 and returns $8.66 in expected value, so its percentage loss is smaller but its dollar loss is bigger than a Gamma Case's. Prices also depend on where you buy: SteamAnalyst lists the Gamma 2 Case at $3.82 on Steam against a $2.75 market average.
Trackers disagree on returns. One that prices cases from Steam Market medians put the 42 weapon cases at 22 to 58 cents of items back per dollar spent on 24 October 2026. SteamAnalyst's header says it plainly: every case loses on average.
What are the odds of one specific Karambit?
The odds of one exact finish are the 0.26% knife rate multiplied by 5 knife models and then by the finish pool. Valve disclosed the 0.26% rate in 2017 under Chinese loot box regulation. Valve doesn't publish individual knife or finish probabilities, so every figure below assumes an even split.
| Target | Maths | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Any knife (these cases drop no gloves) | Valve's 0.26% | 385 |
| Any Karambit | 385 × 5 models | 1,925 |
| One exact Chroma or Gamma finish (e.g. Doppler) | 385 × 30 | 11,550 |
| One exact original finish (e.g. Fade) | 385 × 65 | 25,025 |
Trackers use a slightly different rounding. CSGOSKINS.GG's Karambit | Fade page uses a 1 in 391 knife rate, 1 in 65 for Fade within the pool and 1 in 25.4K per opening. The same page adds a Factory New, non-StatTrak filter, which pushes the final figure to about 1 in 29,000. Its Marble Fade page shows 1 in 30 within the pool and 1 in 11.7K per opening.
The gem phases are slices of Doppler, so each is rarer than "Doppler" as a whole. I couldn't verify a trustworthy per-opening figure for Ruby, Sapphire or Black Pearl.
Each opening is independent, and there is no pity timer. After 385 openings you have about a 63% chance of at least one knife, so roughly 37% of players still see none. The same maths applies to the Karambit: after 1,925 openings, about 37% of people would still have no Karambit.
Key takeaway: A Karambit is a lottery on a lottery. The 0.26% knife chance is the easy part. Landing the Karambit model in the finish you want multiplies the wait by 30 to 65.
What are the Karambit finishes worth?
Karambit prices run from about $1,100 for a standard Doppler phase to roughly $9,000 for a gem phase, in Factory New. These are October 2026 US dollars, rounded, and they differ by tracker.
Doppler is a set of colour phases, and the phase sets the price. Phase 2 (pink) and Phase 4 (blue) are the most desirable standard phases, while Sapphire, Ruby, Black Pearl and Emerald command extreme premiums.
| Doppler phase | Looks like | Approx. Factory New price |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 1, 3 and 4 | Phase 1 dark purple, Phase 3 green, Phase 4 blue | $1,100 to $1,300 |
| Phase 2 | pink and purple | $1,500 to $1,700 |
| Sapphire | solid blue | $4,000 to $4,800 |
| Ruby | solid red | $6,500 to $7,400 |
| Black Pearl | dark purple and green swirl | $7,500 to $9,000 |
Ranges combine HLTV Skins' Karambit | Doppler listings, which show Sapphire from $4,015, Ruby $6,646 and Black Pearl $7,507, with SteamAnalyst's higher figures. Gem phases trade rarely and listings vary a lot, so treat those rows as rough guides.
Is buying a Karambit cheaper than chasing one?
Almost always. A standard Doppler phase costs roughly $1,100 to $1,300 to buy, and the average spend to open any Karambit is several times that.
| Target | Average openings | Case used | Gross spend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any Karambit | 1,925 | Gamma 2 Case at $5.22 | about $10,000 |
| One exact Gamma finish | 11,550 | Gamma 2 Case at $5.22 | about $60,000 |
| One exact original finish | 25,025 | Revolver Case at $5.02 | about $126,000 |
This is my arithmetic: openings from the table above times the cost per opening, before counting what your other drops resell for. Those drops do return something. The Revolver Case shows a $5.02 cost against $2.36 expected value. That lowers the net cost but doesn't change the picture.
An average also hides the spread. One calculator puts a Gamma 2 Case opening at $5.17 with an estimated median result of $0.31, because a rare knife drags the average up.
Tip: Set your limit as a number of openings, not a hoped-for result. Having no Karambit after 1,925 openings is normal about 37% of the time. Stop at your limit, never redeposit to chase a dry run, and contact support if it stops being fun. Case opening is for adults only (18+).
What about knife trade-ups?
Since October 2025, you can trade up to a knife without opening a case. Players can hand over five Covert items in exchange for a knife or gloves, as HLTV reported. Five StatTrak Covert items give a StatTrak knife, and the usual same-collection rules apply.
You steer the collection, not the model or the finish. If all five inputs come from one Karambit case's collection, the Karambit is one of five possible knife models. Valve hasn't published a finish split. The update crashed knife prices and sent Covert skins soaring, so check live prices before you commit skins. For how this route compares with a site upgrader, see the CSDROP Upgrader.
Can you open Karambit cases on CSDROP?
CSDROP has 300+ cases that open from your balance with no key needed. Each case page shows its item pool and drop rates before you open. Browse the knife cases category and read each pool, because line-ups and odds are set per case. The odds in this guide describe Valve's cases, not CSDROP's.
If you would rather buy than chase, CSDROP's marketplace lets you buy CS2 skins with your balance and withdraw them to Steam. Check current listings there, and note that Steam trade holds can delay skin withdrawals.
CSDROP's provably fair system uses HMAC-SHA256 from a server seed, your client seed and a nonce, and you can verify results from the game history. That shows a result wasn't altered, not that you will win. CSDROP is for adults only: 18+, or the age of majority in your country if higher. Set a budget before you play.
FAQ
Which CS2 case is cheapest for a Karambit?
On SteamAnalyst's October 2026 figures, the Revolver Case (about $5.02), Gamma 2 Case (about $5.22) and Gamma Case (about $5.29) are cheapest, with Chroma 3 Case near $5.71. Each price includes the $2.49 key. Steam Market prices run higher than third-party markets, so check the live price before you open.
What are the odds of getting a Karambit from a case?
The chance of any knife is 0.26%, about 1 in 385. A Karambit is one of five knife models, so any Karambit is about 1 in 1,925. One exact finish is roughly 1 in 11,550 for Chroma or Gamma cases and about 1 in 25,000 for the original 13, assuming an even split that Valve hasn't confirmed.
Do new cases like Kilowatt have Karambits?
No. All 16 Karambit cases were released between 2013 and 2016, and newer cases use other knife pools. Kilowatt Case, for example, drops the Kukri. Check the item pool on the case page before you open.
Can I get a Karambit from a trade-up contract?
Yes, as one possible result. Five Covert skins give a knife or gloves from the collections your skins belong to, but you can't choose the knife model or the finish. A Karambit only appears if your inputs come from a collection that contains it.
Is it cheaper to buy a Karambit than to open cases for one?
Almost always. A standard Doppler phase costs roughly $1,100 to $1,300 in Factory New as of October 2026. Expected spend to open one exact finish is about $60,000 or more at today's case prices, before resale of other drops.
Can I open Karambit cases on CSDROP?
CSDROP has 300+ cases, and each case page shows its item pool and drop rates before you open. Check the knife cases category for a Karambit in the pool. CSDROP is 18+ only, so set a budget first.
